The Future of Britain: the current government should pay heed to Sir Tony Blair
On the 20th January, Tony Blair made a speech for his Institute for Global Change think tank discussing the future of Britain.
This wasn’t the only time he made the news recently. In early January there was much debate in the media over his being awarded a knighthood in the Queen’s New Years honours. Much of the debate centred around controversy regarding his role in the 2003 War in Iraq, yet this has always been used unfairly as a stick with which to bash Blair and New Labour’s time in power. The truth is that Iraq was an incredibly complex issue, with many good arguments for and against. In the end, Blair made a decision which he believed, fundamentally, to be the right one, which is all we can really ask from our political leaders.
It must also be highlighted that most of those who kicked up a fuss were less motivated by Iraq than by other grievances. Namely former detractors on the left and right with an axe to grind, an eclectic group of conservatives, right wing journalists, and Corbynista leftists embittered by the fact that they were consistently outmanoeuvred by and ultimately never able to defeat the former Prime Minister. There were of course many principled people who objected to the Iraq war, but principled people don’t tend to sign nonsense petitions or peddle in faux outrage.
Blair, like all leaders, made mistakes at home and abroad — his overconfidence that he could positively influence the Bush administration, his following along with that administration’s neocon-led approach to the war in Iraq (particularly, the lack of planning for the aftermath), and his failure to foresee the issues which would accompany globalisation — to name a few.
On balance however, the scale of his achievements far outweighs that of his missteps. Blair was the last Prime Minister to implement long-term policies that fundamentally changed British society. He led country for 10 years through numerous challenges and created a defining role for Britain on the world stage during a period of seismic geopolitical change.
There were considerable domestic achievements: a massive rise in living standards, a sustained period of strong economic growth, and a pivotal role in negotiating the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland, are some of the most notable, but there were innumerable successes in social justice, social mobility, public service investment, devolution, education, and many other areas, as well. Also, despite the pall cast by Iraq, there were some major achievements in foreign policy, for instance, the successful humanitarian interventions in Sierra Leone and Kosovo, the commitment to foreign aid spending, and the securing of a debt write-off for some of the world’s poorest countries.
Sir Tony’s knighthood then is well deserved. Therefore, when he speaks on policy, his words should carry weight.
In his speech on the future of Britain he gave a stark warning. Britain, he said, is devoid of new policy ideas at a time when it is faced by three revolutionary changes. These being: ‘Brexit; the technology revolution; and a climate ambition which foresees a unique transition to being carbon neutral in the power sector in just over a decade and the whole country in 25 years’.
Hence, he warned that despite Britain’s strengths, without a major shift in policy the country will be ill-equipped to deal with the challenges, and thus slip into a decline which would relegate us to a ‘poorer, less prosperous, and less powerful’ league.
Blair goes on to outline a raft of potential changes which could be made. Primarily though, he argues that Britain needs a plan, as well as a vast re-ordering of government priorities, policies, personnel and structure. Thus, he suggests that to face the three revolutions will require a new level of coherence across policy and ultimately a fundamental reorganisation of the way government works, mobilising talent and resource and bringing in the brightest and the best innovators from outside government.
It must be a source of embarrassment for the current government that in one speech Blair offered a more coherent policy roadmap than they have in over two years. The pandemic has of course taken priority, but now when it recedes the Johnson administration is preoccupied with fighting a political crisis and lobbing terrible policy suggestions into the mix as it tries to placate restless backbenchers.
This though is not a surprise. Recent Conservative governments can be characterised by their inability to look beyond short-term policy ‘wins’. Boris Johnson is the epitome of this. Whether his potential fall due to partygate could precipitate a change in direction, we can only wait and see.
In the meantime there is a problem, since Blair is right. The technology revolution and necessary climate action, especially, will cause major disruption to our economy and the cost of living in the decades to come.
Dealing with these disruptions will require considerable reform and, most of all, a commitment to a long-term policy strategy for Great Britain. On this, the current Government could learn a lot from Sir Tony. For now though, it should start by heeding his warnings.
