Putin has torn up the post-Cold War security order — the West needs a strategic recalibration
In the early hours of yesterday (24th February), Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, although it quickly became clear that Russia was conducting a full-scale assault against its neighbour.
By launching a full-scale invasion of a democratic sovereign state of 44 million people, Putin has torn up the post-Cold War security order overnight. With the exception of the bloody breakup of the former Yugoslavia, Europe has seen a sustained period of relative peace since the end of WWII. Even throughout the hostility of the Cold War there was no major conflict between nations in Europe. Now however, the continent is experiencing its first large scale interstate war in nearly eight decades.
The impact of this cannot be understated. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has brought war back to Europe and severely undermined the growing global norm away from interstate conflict that had taken root after the Cold War. The decline in US hegemony, accompanied by the increased assertiveness of authoritarian states, meant a moment like this was inevitable. Nevertheless, in decades to come Putin’s invasion will be seen as a seminal event in world history.
As such, the world’s democracies are in serious need of a major collective strategic recalibration.
In the short term they need to formulate a clear and robust response to Putin’s aggression
Most urgently, NATO needs to revamp its presence in Eastern Europe.
Battle groups and troop deployments must be significantly ‘beefed up’, with an overhaul of the alliance’s deterrence posture along the Russian border. Larger more mobile forces should be positioned in key areas both for defensive and counter-offensive purposes — the latter offering a significant deterrent to Russia, reducing its capacity to concentrate forces in any one place, as it did around Ukraine. Defensively, these units would be heavily equipped with specialised arms intended to greatly slow down any Russia advance — reducing the Kremlin’s greatest advantage in the theatre: logistical proximity.
Russia can then be encircled to the North, West, and South, with the aim to leave it strategically overstretched around its periphery. This will also enable NATO to demonstrate that aggressive actions will result in the opposite of the aggressor’s stated aims.
The West also has to respond and respond robustly.
Sanctions will hurt Russia, but they need to go further and Western sanctions regimes, particularly in the UK, need to be tightened up. Western powers cannot afford a repeat of the last Ukraine crisis response, with it now abundantly clear the previous sanctions-based deterrence strategy has failed. All options must remain on the table when it comes to applying economic pressure, if sanctions aren’t biting, they should be adjusted until they do. Military aid to Ukraine should continue and be stepped up, especially arms which will allow it to best combat Russian advances and engage in guerrilla warfare if necessary. Light anti-tank and anti-air weapons should be a priority. The UK’s recent deliveries of such aid are increasingly looking a prudent move. The Russian people appear uneasy (many didn’t expect or want a war), the West must clearly communicate that Putin bears responsibility for the consequences they will feel. Germany’s government naming this ‘Putin’s war’ is a good first step.
It is critical to demonstrate that actions such as this will backfire, with severe consequences for countries and regimes which engage in aggression. Given the brazenness of Putin’s invasion, Western powers cannot afford to ‘half-arse’ the response.
Putin and Russia must also be isolated. The Russian President as been provided ample opportunity to prove his commitment to diplomacy over the past two decades, an opportunity he has spurned repeatedly. Putin has proven himself an unreliable and erratic actor, a different approach to negotiation with the Kremlin should be taken in the future (analysis of unreliable actors, such as former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, have found they rarely if ever change their approach). There can no longer be a seat around the table for Putin when it comes to matters of European security or the global economy — Russia needs to be frozen out.
Beyond the initial response
To put it crudely, the West needs to ‘show some mettle’.
It has to prevent the growing belief in authoritarian corners of the world that democracies lack the will to fight. An engaged and vigorous push back is required against the global creep of authoritarianism, not just strong words accompanied by limited action. Following Afghanistan and now Ukraine, Western strategy and deterrence is in trouble — there is a serious need for something to build it upon. Overarching Western deterrence and grand strategy must be revamped; the next crisis cannot be met with the same lacklustre response, rather it must be countered with one that is suitably coordinated and robust. To achieve this, defence spending will have to rise, and European powers in particular will need to get serious about security. Western leaders must be under no illusions, Putin’s actions mean the security guarantee of a peaceful and stable Europe is no more.
Greater unity is required amongst democratic powers.
Increased coordination between democratic powers across the world is essential. Strategy should be coordinated from Europe to North America to Asia and Oceania. India must be brought into the fold, with global security realities shifting it cannot afford to remain on the side lines any longer. The West should make balancing against China contingent on New Delhi distancing itself from Moscow. Africa likewise should not be neglected. A general apathy towards the continent amongst many Western powers in recent decades has seen democratic backsliding and an increasing number of coups, and allowed Russia and China to exploit the continent to their own ends. Africa’s potential is immense and its people’s affinity for Western values and culture admirable — it cannot be ignored. Tireless diplomacy will also be required at the UN and other global institutions to ensure that a rules based international order remains the norm.
Western nations must also be proactive at home.
Corrupt Russian finance needs to be rooted out, especially from the City of London. Sanctions regimes need to be tightened. European countries will need to be weaned off their dependence on Russian energy supplies, with a greater emphasis across the democratic world on self-sufficiency of resources. Russian and foreign interference in domestic politics and elections must be cracked down on. EU governments with pro-Russian or pro-authoritarian sympathies must be faced with a clear choice as to which side they are on — a carrot and stick approach would be best here.
Sustained pressure will also have to be put on those apologists and enablers (primarily on the extreme right and left and especially in the United States) who undermine democracy and Western unity — ‘my country first’ ‘not our problem’ ‘its NATO’s fault’ rhetoric must be exposed for the authoritarian enabling sham it is. Similarly, extreme media elements (again particularly in the US) which undermine democracy must be closely monitored by intelligence services and rigorously fact checked and exposed. A comprehensive strategy for regulation drawn up in conjunction with major tech and media companies would go a long way to achieving this.
Before all this, however, Western leaders and publics will have to face up to one simple fact. The world is entering a new era in international security.
