Chaos in Russia: A dangerous moment for Putin
What is happening in Russia?
After months of public jousting, the infighting and war of words between the mercenary Wagner group and Russia’s top military brass has exploded into a full-blown power struggle.
Things reached a head yesterday when Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s controversial leader, openly disputed the Kremlin’s claimed justification for the war and launched his strongest verbal assault yet on Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
This escalated into open rebellion overnight and into this morning as Wagner forces seized control of military facilities in the key Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, are claimed to have taken control of facilities in and around the city of Voronezh and have threatened to march on Moscow to remove the military leadership. Such action may well be under way, with reports that Wagner convoys on the M4 highway linking Rostov-on-Don and Moscow have been fired upon by Russian military forces.
For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin has addressed the nation denouncing the Wagner groups actions as treason and announced counter-terror measures in regions around Moscow.
Why is this happening?
The current situation can be seen as an inevitable consequence of both Putin’s method of rule and his decision to invade Ukraine. Putin, like many authoritarian rulers, relies upon a system of simultaneous divide and conquer amongst his lieutenants and elites and close control of the various instruments of the state.
For much of his reign, he has managed this by ensuring that the only way to attain, and retain, significant influence in Russia is to remain close to Putin himself.
However, the invasion of Ukraine has changed that. Like many authoritarian regimes, Putin’s system relies upon maintaining balance and control. War, however, creates many unknowns — unknowns which Putin simply cannot control.
The Russian President is calculating and will have prepared for this — as evidenced through the repressive policing and overt propaganda seen to quash early resistance to the war, allowing him to maintain support amongst Russia’s population despite the military’s setbacks.
Yet, as the war has continued, more and more things appear to have slipped from his control, with pro-war military bloggers becoming increasingly critical of the approach of the defence ministry and Russian general staff, and the war providing Prigozhin with the opportunity to battle harden his troops and build his power base and persona. As Russia has continued to struggle on the battlefield, Putin’s growing reliance on Wagner has left him unable to prevent the balanced competition amongst his elites from turning into outright conflict.
What will happen next will depend on Prigozhin’s intentions and his levels of support among key elements of the Russian elite and security forces.
Currently Prigozhin’s endgame appears to be anyone’s guess. The Wagner leader clearly desires the removal of Shoigu and the Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, with both of whom he has constantly clashed, but whether his move is born out of confidence or desperation and whether he intends to move against Putin himself, remains to be seen.
Has Prigozhin acted now out of confidence, seeing weakness amongst a Russian military preoccupied with Ukraine’s counteroffensive and an opportunity for his battle-hardened forces to seize significant control within Russia and settle his dispute with Shoigu and Gerasimov? Or has he seen his influence with Putin decline in recent months and decided to gamble on one last roll of the dice before the Russian military moves against him? (Prigozhin has claimed that Russian soldiers fired on Wagner positions in recent days)
In terms of support amongst Russian elites for Wagner’s actions, it is again difficult to get a read on exact levels of support for Prigozhin and his men. A few key allies of Putin have come out denouncing the rebellion. Some likely see an opportunity to prove their own loyalty to Russia’s president as they angle for greater influence to set up their own bids for power one day.
However, Wagner forces appear to have faced little push back so far, creating questions around the loyalties of various factions of the security forces and local leaders — Prigozhin has claimed that Wagner troops did not have to fire a single shot in taking Rostov-on-Don, the key military hub for Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. With events moving fast, I suspect we will soon find out whether Wagner really does have support amongst key members of the Russian elite and security forces.
Whatever the outcome of Wagner’s actions, the chaos created will inevitably create instability amongst Russia’s elite, making this is a dangerous moment for Putin.
